Capital Refinery
Research

Original work on decision integrity in private markets.

Independent landscape analysis, vendor evaluations, and the metrics framework behind the platform. Free to read, citation-friendly, and grounded in third-party evidence.

The series

Decision integrity, in pieces.

Spinout posts that take one structural problem from the flagship and go deep on it. Read in any order — each post stands alone.

  1. 01 / 07

    Your Data Room Dies at Close. Your Risk Doesn't.

    Diligence files exist somewhere — but the living connection between what was underwritten and what is happening now is severed the moment the wire goes through.

    Read →
  2. 02 / 07

    Why Your Monitoring Dashboard Isn't a Decision Tool

    iLEVEL, Allvue, Chronograph, and Cobalt deliver visibility — but visibility is not the same thing as decision capability, and the structural difference matters.

    Read →
  3. 03 / 07

    Private Credit Just Got Its First Real Stress Test

    February was the first stress test. March and April confirmed the repricing is structural: redemption caps at Ares, Apollo, Blackstone BCRED; Morgan Stanley projecting 8% defaults; the 2008 comparison revived. The operating requirement the article lays out is now more urgent, not less.

    Read →
  4. 04 / 07

    The IC Materials Problem: Rebuilt From Scratch Every Quarter

    Push-button reporting produces data summaries. What IC committees and boards actually need is governed decision outputs — materials where every number carries provenance.

    Read →
  5. 05 / 07

    Time-to-Consequence: The Metric Your Portfolio Tools Don't Have

    How long until a change in conditions becomes irreversible — and why it's the metric that reframes how PE and credit teams measure decision risk.

    Read →
  6. 06 / 07

    AI Agents Cannot Govern Portfolios Without the Data Layer Beneath Them

    PE is spending on AI capabilities that sit on top of fragmented, disconnected data infrastructure. The precondition for useful AI agents is not better models — it is a connected decision record.

    Read →
  7. 07 / 07

    The Decision Integrity Category: Why No Incumbent Occupies It

    Monitoring tools, CRMs, and accounting systems were not designed to support continuous evaluation of whether a prior investment decision still holds. The category has no incumbent.

    Read →

Want this series in your data room?

The full research package — flagship plus spinouts — is available as a citation-friendly PDF for IC and LP distribution.