The book is bigger. The covenant infrastructure is still spreadsheets.
See covenant pressure before the breach surfaces — covenant early warning with continuous borrower monitoring and evidence-backed breach forecasting.
Parse the credit agreement, bind covenants to live borrower data, and run breach probability and time-to-consequence on every position. The diagnostic the compliance certificate was never built to be.
This is what your morning brief looks like on a credit position.
Falcon Services is a live PE/PC services position under watch posture. Below: the IC memo with risk signals graded against firm policy. The covenant forecast workbook (downloadable) carries the same fingerprint and reads the same evidence — usable in the credit committee, forwardable to the LP.
This is the artifact the workout team reads in the morning brief, the credit committee reads at the quarterly, and the LP reads in the position-level pack. One record, one fingerprint, one evidence standard.
Five gaps direct lenders are operating around.
Bain estimates private credit AUM at $1.7 trillion and growing. The infrastructure for governing those positions is still spreadsheets and PDF compliance certificates — and, per the EY 2024 Private Capital Tech Survey, the dominant blocker is the absence of a unified data architecture, not model capability.
Bain & Company 2025 Global Private Equity Report; EY 2024 Private Capital Tech Survey
Signal → Scenario → Intervention → Output.
The same four-stage loop, built for direct lending: covenant-aware signals, breach-aware scenarios, lender-aware workflows, and outputs that hold up under examination.
See pressure early
Know which positions are moving toward breach before the compliance certificate arrives.
Each covenant is bound to the operator data that tests it. Breach probability re-runs as new operator data lands. The book is ranked by proximity to break — not by last quarter's traffic-light colour.
Understand downside clearly
Run stress fast enough to answer the lender call, not prepare for it.
Shock scenarios propagate across the book. Time-to-consequence, breach probability, and fund-level concentration are visible in the same pass. PIK accrual, payment waterfall, and consent rights are first-class — not spreadsheet footnotes.
Act in a governed workflow
Turn a breach signal into a structured response, not an email chain.
When a position trips the wire, the platform surfaces lender consent requirements, assigns action owners, and tracks resolution. The team stays in control through the amendment process — not through a compliance meeting where everyone agrees to send another waiver request.
Defend the decision when the scrutiny comes later
The decision basis survives the LP review.
Every covenant breach, every waiver, every amendment decision is recorded with its reasoning and its alternatives. When the LP asks why the team chose to amend instead of accelerate, the answer is already structured — not a narrative someone has to rebuild.
Not a re-keyed dashboard — the certified ratio, with the headroom.
Every credit officer has been burned by a covenant table that’s a quarter stale, or by a sponsor’s forecast column standing in for the certified actual. Capital Refinery reads the total net leverage and fixed-charge-coverage ratios — and the cap or floor each is measured against — straight from the borrower’s compliance certificate, and shows the headroom that remains: leverage 3.22x against a 5.00x cap (1.78x of room), FCCR 1.38x against a 1.15x floor (0.23x of room). A forecast column cannot impersonate the certified actual, and a covenant whose actual can’t be sourced is shown blank rather than invented.
And the number is defensible all the way down: every figure the platform serves is traceable to a source document, recorded as a contradiction, or absent — never fabricated — enforced by a release gate that can’t pass by dropping a failing check. The figure you put in front of your IC, your LP, or a regulator is one you can source.
The reported actual — read off the certificate, not re-keyed.
The covenant ratio and its threshold are lifted directly from the borrower’s compliance certificate — the reported actuals for the period, never a re-keyed figure or a forecast column — and the headroom that remains is computed against the contractual threshold the lender signed.
- Consolidated Funded Debt
- $186.4M
- less: Unrestricted Cash
- ($14.9M)
- Consolidated Net Debt
- $171.5M
- Consolidated EBITDA (LTM)
- $48.6M
- Total Net Leverage Ratio
- 3.53x
- Covenant — not to exceed
- 4.25x
- Compliance
- In Compliance
- Consolidated EBITDA (LTM)
- $48.6M
- less: Unfinanced Capex
- ($6.2M)
- less: Cash Taxes
- ($5.1M)
- Numerator (adjusted)
- $37.3M
- Scheduled Debt Service (P+I)
- $21.0M
- Cash Interest
- $9.4M
- Fixed Charges
- $30.4M
- Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio
- 1.23x
- Covenant — not less than
- 1.10x
- Compliance
- In Compliance
Forecast / projection columns on the source certificate are excluded — reported actuals for the measurement period only.
The research behind this.
- For lenders — borrower-side IRA + covenant forecastBorrower-side artifact as credit committee precursor; covenant design; workout engagement framing.
- Anatomy of a covenant breach8 stages T-12 → T+180. What the trajectory looks like and what gets missed at each stage.
- Risk Signals — observed vs firm policyThe consolidated scoreboard on every IC memo and covenant forecast.
- The Private Markets Decision Integrity GapWhy credit stress infrastructure is missing from the dominant monitoring stack.
- Time-to-ConsequenceThe metric direct lending teams have been measuring informally for years — formalised.
What the credit-side operating loop actually is.
Three architectural commitments the rest of the credit monitoring category does not make.
When did our last decision stop being correct?
Regret-Exposure Days: a sticky number, frozen at first detection, that grows until the committee reconvenes or the position transitions out of monitor. Quotable in credit committee.
Tighten the DSCR floor. The book re-grades tonight.
Eleven explicit policy thresholds the platform reads directly — LTV caps, concentration limits, interest-reserve minimums. Move one, every position re-grades on the next render.
Borrower accounting, live.
Direct sync to QuickBooks, Xero, NetSuite, Dynamics, Sage Intacct, Plaid. When the borrower closes the books, your covenant headroom view sees it the next morning — not the next board cycle.
Bring us a credit agreement.
We'll parse it into a structured capital structure record and run breach probability against the live operator data. Real document. Real position. Returned the same day.