Capital Refinery
Buy-side proof case · Falcon Services Q1 2026

What decision integrity looks like on a real PE/PC deal.

Falcon Services is the buy-side counterpart to Cedarbrook (which proves seller readiness) — a corporate services deal under watch posture, used to validate the engine end-to-end on real-shaped data. Rather than re-render the same screens here, this page routes you to the four canonical surfaces where Falcon is already alive: the video walkthrough, the seven-artifact buy-side proof pack, the same-day diagnostic sample, and the IC memo engine deep dive. Same engine, four entry points by what you want to see first.

What Falcon is, in one paragraph

A corporate services deal — closed, financed, monitored quarter over quarter. Real KPIs ($228.4M revenue, 18.6% margin, DSCR 2.95x, FCCR 1.35x, leverage 4.78x, total debt $210.5M). Real covenants (FCCR floor 1.25x, leverage ceiling 5.25x). Real stress runs. Real IC dossier with structured pillars and observable signals. The fixture is synthetic; the engine output is exactly what runs against customer deals. Falcon exists so a sophisticated reviewer can inspect the platform end-to-end without us asking them to send us their own deal first.

The four canonical Falcon surfaces

Falcon doesn’t live on one page. It’s the running example across the site. Pick the entry point that matches what you’re trying to inspect:

How to read these surfaces

When you click into any of the four, here are the things worth pausing on. They are the buy-side equivalents of the cues a sell-side reviewer would look for on Cedarbrook:

  • The IC dossier shape. Structured pillars with observable signals and conditions — not narrative paragraphs. The decision-readiness flag is a function of evidence completeness, never of operator intent.
  • Per-cell provenance. Every promoted KPI carries candidate_id, source_ref, and method. Click any number, see the page in the source document where it came from.
  • Stress + covenant grading. Five-lane policy-aware risk projectors. Every signal grades against firm policy with observed value, threshold, and verdict. Change a threshold once — every existing memo re-grades on the next render.
  • Decision lifecycle. Anchored investment IDs, alert lineage, event-keyed UI. Decision-commit auto-anchors a snapshot the moment the IC approves. Reopening “how this position evolved” replaces reconstructing it from email.
  • What’s marked not_observable. When evidence is thin, the engine refuses to grade and says so. Look for the marker. The discipline is the credibility.
  • The verification fingerprint. Every export carries the dossier fingerprint and an IC anchor reference. Public verification URLs resolve to a stripped LP view — portable proof, not a PDF in someone’s inbox.

Different from a typical IC memo workflow

Most buy-side workflows produce a memo at approval and then quietly let it go stale. The deal closes, the position starts being monitored in a different system, and the IC thesis lives on a shared drive that nobody opens until the next quarterly. The differences below are what change when the IC memo is built as decision infrastructure instead of a Word document:

  • Thesis stays re-testable. Pillars, conditions, and signals are structured fields the engine re-evaluates against every operator update — not paragraphs that decay.
  • Decision-commit is anchored. The moment the IC approved is a cryptographic snapshot, not a calendar entry. Every subsequent state diffs back to it deterministically.
  • Provenance is per-cell, not per-document. “The CIM said” isn’t sufficient. Every number traces to a page, a method, and an adjudication trail.
  • Stress is first-class. Reusable shock packs, propagation logic, breach radar — not a spreadsheet copy somebody made once and lost.
  • Renewal produces a delta, not a rewrite. “Since last IC” surfaces what changed in observation language, derived from anchored snapshots — not reconstructed by the analyst the night before the meeting.

What is intentionally not claimed

The credibility comes from what the engine refuses to do. The refusals are structural, enforced by the engine code, and they hold for every assessment.

  • No black-box verdict. Every band, every signal, every covenant grade derives from named, inspectable evidence. The Why-this-number overlay exposes the reasoning tree.
  • No imputation. Missing data means not_observable with a reason. Never zero, never default, never median.
  • No narrative grading. Sentiment, tone, and management communication style are not graded. LLM-derived sentiment scores on human prose are opinion in numeric clothing.
  • No fabricated alerts. Risk signals fire against firm policy, not against vibes. Every signal carries observed value, threshold, and verdict.
  • No customer claim. Falcon Services is a synthetic fixture used to validate the buy-side methodology. We do not show logos we have not earned.
  • No outcome guarantee. The platform does not predict deal outcomes. It surfaces when prior IC decisions are no longer defensible — early enough to act, with the full evidence trail intact.

Where this fits

Falcon is the buy-side proof case. Once you’ve inspected it, the same engine drives two customer-facing buy-side surfaces:

  • Pressure-test one deal. Send a CIM, a credit agreement, or a model. Same-day diagnostic on your laptop. No demo data.
  • Evaluation on a real position. Full platform on a deal you closed last quarter. Live against your actual operator data — the same dossier pipeline that produced the Falcon proof pack.

Want the sell-side counterpart? The Cedarbrook walkthrough is the operating-company / sale-prep view, with its own downloadable seller-readiness pack including the IRA assessment. Cedarbrook proves seller readiness through the IRA ladder; Falcon proves buy-side decision integrity through the IC dossier + decision-lifecycle stack. Same engine, different audience, different artifact stream by design.

Duaine McDonald — founder of Capital Refinery
Founder-led access
Duaine McDonald

Built by Duaine McDonald, an AI strategist and fractional Chief AI Officer with 20+ years across enterprise automation, transformation, governance, and AI strategy. The consulting practice runs separately as Enterprise Refinery; Capital Refinery is the software layer that came out of those conversations — the institutional measurement artifact operating companies, advisors, and investment teams kept asking for and could not find anywhere else. Early engagements are reviewed directly by the founder.

Proof without customer theater

Capital Refinery is early. We do not show customer logos we have not earned.

Instead, we show the methodology, two fixture-based proof cases (one per audience), the verification flow, and the live artifacts a buyer, lender, board reviewer, or advisor would inspect. Most early-stage products would invent a logo wall. We refuse on purpose — the same discipline that makes the artifact credible.

See the engine on a deal from your portfolio.

The IC dossier, the per-cell provenance, the stress lab, the covenant forecast, the decision lifecycle, and the verification artifact — all on a real position you bring to us.