The Strait of Hormuz is not an oil shock. It is a propagation event.

Hormuz → energy → transport → industrial inputs → semiconductors → AI infrastructure → private credit → portfolio break order. That sequence is the whole point. A scenario description stops at the first arrow. A propagation engine follows it all the way into your book.

The system has to show the transmission path, the fail-first deal, the fund collision, and the intervention queue on the same logic. Otherwise it is a narrative, not a decision tool.

Energy shock hits first.

Oil, LNG, and transport costs spike. This is not abstract inflation. It is a specific compression on logistics-heavy companies, power-intensive infrastructure, and fertilizer and food production. Margins compress immediately.

Industrial inputs tighten.

Helium and specialty inputs tighten. Semiconductor production slows. This is where most models stop. This is where the real propagation starts.

Semiconductor constraint becomes infrastructure pressure.

Chip constraints hit AI infrastructure. Build timelines slip. Costs rise. Private credit is financing these assets. Slower ramp. Tighter liquidity. Weaker coverage. This is where deals start to break.

Private credit is where the shock gets held.

Private credit does not absorb shocks cleanly. It holds them. Loans are illiquid. Transparency is limited. Covenant pressure builds silently. Now the clock starts.

Not everything breaks at once. That is the actual problem. Some deals fail in months. Some deteriorate slowly. Some survive, if you act early. The question the scenario engine has to answer is which deal is which.

What the system has to do.

Which deal breaks first. The fail-first position identified by the transmission path, not by a blanket stress on the book.

What drives the break. The specific channel — power, chip availability, refinance window — not just a covenant threshold.

When the decision becomes forced. The time window between today and the moment optionality is gone.

Which action buys the most time. Ranked stabilizers, not a generic watchlist.

What other decisions compete for the same capital. The fund-level constraint that turns “stabilize this one” into “which one do we fund first.”

Atlas Helios Compute Campus. Power hits first. This deal breaks in months. If action does not start before pressure, options narrow quickly. The intervention extends survival, but it does not remove the path.

The fund constraint.

Multiple deals require action on the same clock. Not all can be solved at once. Choosing one delays another. This is the part spreadsheet stress tests do not produce — the collision between required actions and available capital on a single timeline.

Most teams are asking the wrong question.

“Is this scenario risky?” is the wrong question. The right questions are what breaks first, when control is lost, what buys time, what gets funded, and what is allowed to fail — because when the shock hits, there is no time to figure that out.