Capital Refinery
← Sound familiar?

The Refinance Wall

THE REFINANCE WALL — Debt model today: 80% of maturities in 2028+. Twelve months later: 'What does the refinancing plan look like?' Six months later: 'Market window keeps closing.' Remaining time: a clock and a whiteboard reading 'REFINANCING PLAN IN PROGRESS.'

Maturity isn't a surprise. It's a wall.

Eighty percent of the maturity stack landing in 2028 is in your debt model today. The platform that flags it eighteen months before the conversation gets uncomfortable is the platform that read your model in November of the prior year. The wall didn't move. The clock did.

This is what decision continuity prevents — not by writing the memo for you, but by keeping the memo testable.

← Previous
The Add-Back That Wasn't
Add-back quality is a fact. Not a definition.
Next →
Not Yet Decisionable
A vendor that learned to say "not yet."
See the whole series →

Don't trust the dashboard. Trace the numbers yourself.

Three downloadable deal packs across the lifecycle. Every KPI cites its source cell. Open kpis.csv, follow the citation, the number matches.

Download the deal packsRead the diagnosis